Using Robust Decisionmaking as a Tool for Water Resources Planning in Southern CaliforniaBy:
April 22, 2010
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Project Summary / Overview
Water planners have been struggling to incorporate the impacts of climate change into their planning process due to the inherent uncertainties in regards to the type and magnitude of impacts that will be experienced at the local level. To help water planners incorporate climate change into their long-term plans, the RAND Corporation piloted the Robust Decisionmaking (RDM) tool in the Southern California region in collaboration with the Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA). RDM integrates a variety of climate scenarios, management plans, and costs and is able to assess vulnerabilities and trade offs in comparison with other plans. For the IEUA case, results indicate that their long-term water management plan would perform best in light of climate change if it were augmented with near-term water efficiency strategies. In a survey, water planners found the RDM results as a useful tool to help them incorporate the impacts of climate change into long-term planning.
Traditionally, water planners have used historical streamflow data and weather patterns to infer seasonal water forecasts. However, climate change is expected to change weather patterns, air temperature, and precipitation patterns in an as yet relatively unpredictable fashion at the local scale. Water managers are seeking methods to incorporate the impacts of climate change into their current planning processes but are hampered by the uncertainty in future climate forecasts. In general, climate change impacts of concern relative to water resources include warmer temperatures, reduced precipitation, reduced snow pack, shifts in peak spring flow, and higher consumer demands. The extent and magnitude of these impacts will vary from region to region. Climate change is making it hard to plan for the future; it has become clear to most utility managers that past weather and hydrologic records will no longer provide an accurate guide to future weather and hydrology.
While many water and wastewater utilities recognize the potential impacts of climate change, there has been a missing link between recognition and the transition to action. This is due in part to the relatively large degree of uncertainty inherent in scaled down global climate models. It has generally been assumed that it is difficult for planners to accurately plan for the future without precise ranges of future climatic variability.
In 2006, the RAND Corporation was awarded a multi-year National Science Foundation grant to develop and evaluate new analytical methods to incorporate uncertainty about climate change into water resource decisions. To complete its study, RAND selected to partner with IEUA, a water and wastewater utility in Riverside, California, as its model case study.
IEUA is a municipal water agency that delivers supplemental imported and recycled water resources to an area of 242 square miles in the southwestern corner of San Bernardino County with a population of 800,000 and growing. IEUA operates five water recycling facilities and processes an average of 60 million gallons of wastewater per day. In 2005, IEUA released its Regional Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP), a forward looking and planning document for the utility. The UWMP anticipates a population increase of about 800,000 to 1.2 million people by 2030 and outlines a plan to meet future water demands by improving water-use efficiency and developing local resources. For the study, the RAND Corporation worked in collaboration with IEUA to assess the efficacy of the UWMP in relation to future climate scenarios and then developed alternative management strategies available to IEUA to help combat the effects of climate change.
To complete this project, the RAND Corporation utilized multiple technological tools.
- The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system, developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute, integrates physical hydrologic processes with consumer demands and infrastructure. WEAP was used to evaluate the effectiveness a variety of water management plans would have under different climate scenarios.
- The National Center for Atmospheric Research developed future climate scenarios for the project using the results of 21 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models scaled down to the Southern California region. Results indicate the climate in Southern California could range from 0.1-2.1°C warmer and there could be a -19 to +8% change in wintertime precipitation. These results were transformed into different climate scenarios.
- The RAND Corporation utilized a new decision analysis methodology designed to support decisionmaking under uncertain conditions called Robust Decisionmaking (RDM). RDM evaluates the performance of different management plans under a variety of scenarios, identifies vulnerabilities within management plans, and finally identifies the most robust management plans to vulnerabilities and presents key tradeoffs within various plans. To evaluate the efficacy and usefulness of the RDM tool, the RAND Corporation presented the study results in four workshops to water resource managers. Participants were surveyed before and after each workshop to evaluate the water resource managers’ perceptions of the RDM tool and its conclusions. The survey was designed to discern whether or not water managers felt more empowered to properly plan for the effects of climate change once they were presented the results from the RDM tool.
Ultimately, the RAND Corporation presented two types of results at its workshops. The first workshop presented an evaluation of the IEUA UWMP under four climate scenarios. Findings generally indicated that if the impacts of climate change are minimal, the UWMP will meet its supply goals for 2030. However, if climate change causes significant warming and drying trends, the UWMP could perform poorly and miss many of its goals, causing economic losses. Surveys indicated that resource managers did not infer enough meaningful information from these results to develop alternative management plans that incorporate the impacts of climate change. The following three workshops presented an RDM analysis in which the UWMP was evaluated against a much larger set of scenarios with different assumptions regarding the extent of climate change, management plan, and costs; in sum, over 200 scenarios were run under the RDM analysis. Under this analysis, cost was 20% greater than expected costs in 120 of the 200 scenarios. They found that the UWMP was particularly vulnerable to future conditions that were drier with reduced access to imported water and when natural percolation of the ground water basin decreased. Eight additional management strategies beyond the UWMP were analyzed to assess their ability to reduce vulnerabilities under a wide variety of climate scenarios. Strategies varied from increasing water use efficiency, recycling stormwater for ground water replenishment, and developing the region’s water recycling program. In all cases, augmenting the UWMP with additional management strategies led to lower costs and reduced vulnerability.
Under the RDM analysis, the best management plan was adaptive and included near-term implementation of more water use efficiency techniques. When water managers were presented these results, surveys indicated that this type of information caused them to increase the belief that they could adequately plan for the effects of climate change despite the uncertainty in forecasts.
Project Outcomes and Conclusions
Based upon the analysis and survey results, the RAND Corporation concluded that to help water resource managers prepare for climate change, scenarios should be analyzed using as many plausible future climate conditions and management strategies as possible. The RDM tool helps to interpret and quantify the significance of the results into meaningful terms. It was concluded that local solutions should not be overlooked when developing solutions to the impacts of climate change. Local policies and management opportunities may be more cost effective, reliable, and feasible when compared to other options.