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Project Summary / Overview

As one of the largest estuaries in North America, San Francisco Bay is under increasing pressure from sea level rise. Anticipated sea level rise ranges from 20 to 55 inches along the California coast. As part of its mission to protect and sustainably develop the Bay Area, the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) has been working to incorporate climate change and sea level rise scenarios into its comprehensive plan. In addition, BCDC has partnered with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Coastal Services Center to create the Adapting to Rising Tides (ART) project in order to assist communities in the Bay Area prepare for sea level rise.

Project Background

In 2009, BCDC released Living With a Rising Bay, its sea level rise assessment. This assessment included the following:

  • Projected a 20–55 inch rise in sea level by 2100
  • Estimated $36 billion in expenses by 2050 and $62 billion by 2100
  • Increased flooding risk for 270,000 Bay residents with a 55 inch rise
  • Increased flooding risk for 210,000 acres of Bay shoreline by 2100
  • Estimated 95% of tidal wetlands vulnerable to sea level rise, which may increase flooding and erosion

The ART project was created as a result of this vulnerability assessment and facilitates connections between communities, scientists, managers, and planners at both the local and state level to address sea level rise. The project is designed to both identify the likely effects of climate change and sea level rise on the Bay Area’s natural and built environments and create adaptation strategies to increase resilience and limit risks.

 

Project Implementation

A regional kickoff meeting for the ART project was held on October 22, 2010 in Oakland to introduce the project to local community members, managers, and planners. Representatives from BCDC and ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability provided overview presentations of projected climate change and sea level rise impacts to the San Francisco Bay Area and adaptation planning processes. Participants were invited to submit proposals for a sub-regional pilot project. Next steps include an Engaging the Sub-region workshop, during which managers and planners from the selected sub-region will identify local climate change concerns and select a community, and an ART in Your Community workshop with stakeholders to identify local risks, vulnerabilities, and responses to likely inundation scenarios.

 

Project Outcomes and Conclusions

The ART project is in its initial phases. This project aims to eventually develop a regional adaptation planning process for use by multiple communities. Other anticipated outcomes include:

  • Increased capacity for vulnerability assessment and implementation of adaptation responses
  • Improved collaboration and cooperation between local and regional stakeholders in addressing climate change and sea level rise
  • Expanded access to adaptation planning tools for use by local communities

Recommended Citation

Gregg, R.M. (2010). Adapting to Rising Tides in San Francisco Bay, California [Case study on a project of the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission]. Product of EcoAdapt's State of Adaptation Program. Retrieved from CAKE: http://www.cakex.org/case-studies/2737 (Last updated December 2010)