Abstract

Biodiversity is declining worldwide in ways that are consistent with previously predicted effects of climate change. Managers are faced with identifying where, when, and how to allocate their limited resources to ensure maximal effect when addressing emerging and evolving societal concerns about climate change. Forecasts of species biodiversity can provide managers with prospective identities and locations of species that are likely to be at future risk because of climate change. This research will address questions related to the use of species distribution models in predicting species’ vulnerability to climate change. The project will also examine the connections between factors affecting species variation and species’ characteristics, the relations between species-specific distribution forecasts and published vulnerability assessments, and the vulnerability of bird and reptile species to forecasted climate change in the southwestern U.S.