National / Federal Government

California rangelands provide millions of acres of forage supporting the state’s multi-billion-dollar animal agriculture sector, as well as providing numerous additional ecosystem services. Declines in forage quantity and overall rangeland health critically impact the livestock industry and the ability of California’s ranchers to maintain viability. In recent years, revenues and net incomes have declined across the sector, a trend exacerbated by recent, historically severe drought.

This paper contributes to improving understanding of how funders, practitioners and other stakeholders can support and facilitate transformation in adaptation to climate change. It uses the latest academic literature, as well as learning from practice, to put forward a conceptual framework for determining the likelihood of an adaptation initiative delivering transformation. This framework unpacks the term ‘transformation’ into three components:

Watersheds on the Uinta-Wasatch-Cache and Ashley National Forests provide many ecosystem services, and climate change poses a risk to these services. We developed a watershed vulnerability assessment to provide scientific information for land managers facing the challenge of managing these watersheds. Literature-based information and expert elicitation is used to define components of watershed sensitivity and exposure to climate change. We also define the capacity of watershed function, habitats, and biota to adapt to the expected changes.

Incorporation of climate change impacts into transportation decisions is still a relatively new concept. As decision makers in various sectors grapple with information on climate change effects and how they may or may not impact their core mission(s), they are turning to existing tools and approaches for guidance. To date, three closely-related approaches are being used to help transportation decision makers consider and prepare for future climate impacts: vulnerability assessment, risk assessment, and adaptation assessment.

The economic, social, and environmental costs of drought can be significant, and vulnerability to drought will likely increase in the future with a warming climate. To promote stronger drought resilience on federal lands, the National Drought Resilience Partnership was initiated in 2016. As a part of this effort, the U.S. Forest Service conducted a series of focused workshops across the country to build the capacity to address the impact of short- and long-term drought on forest and rangeland resources, thus informing land management, restoration, and climate change adaptation.

U.S. agriculture faces significant changes in local patterns of precipitation and temperature over the next century, with implications for regional water cycling and water availability. The effects of climate change on food production, farmer livelihoods, and consumer welfare will depend on the direction, magnitude, and rate of change in local weather conditions, as well as on the ability of the agricultural sector to adapt to changing yield and productivity patterns, production costs, and resource availability.

In the United States, climate change is likely to increase average daily temperatures and the frequency of heat waves, which can reduce meat and milk production in animals. Methods that livestock producers use to mitigate thermal stress—including modifications to animal management or housing—tend to increase production costs and capital expenditures. Dairy cows are particularly sensitive to heat stress, and the dairy sector has been estimated to bear over half of the costs of current heat stress to the livestock industry.

This report evaluates the extent to which farms facing higher levels of drought risk are more likely to participate in conservation programs, and finds a strong link between drought risk and program participation. Prior research has shown that climate-related risk exposure influences production decisions such as crop choice; our research shows that adaptation also includes program participation decisions.

Global climate models predict increases over time in average temperature worldwide, with significant impacts on local patterns of temperature and precipitation. The extent to which such changes present a risk to food supplies, farmer livelihoods, and rural communities depends in part on the direction, magnitude, and rate of such changes, but equally importantly on the ability of the agricultural sector to adapt to changing patterns of yield and productivity, production cost, and resource availability.