Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

Tool Overview: 

The Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) provides a variety of forecasts from the National Weather Service regarding potential magnitude and uncertainty of flood and drought events. The AHPS offers hydrologic forecasts for close to 4,000 locations throughout the United States, and forecasts can be produced from hours to months in advance. The tool mainly draws upon data from the USGS National Streamflow Information Program (https://water.usgs.gov/nsip), a national network of stream gauges.

Position Title: 
Senior Associate
Email Address: 
Position Title: 
Executive Coordinator
Organization: 

Are cultural heritage and resources threatened by climate change? A systematic literature review

Climate change poses serious threats to the protection and preservation of cultural heritage and resources. Despite a high level of scholarly interest in climate change impacts on natural and socio-economic systems, a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of climate change on cultural heritage and resources across various continents and disciplines is notice- ably absent from the literature. To address this gap, we conducted a systematic literature review methodology to identify and characterize the state of knowledge and how the cultural heritage and resources at risk from climate change are being explored globally. Results from 124 reviewed publications show that scholarly interest in the topic is increasing, employs a wide range of research methods, and represents diverse natural and social science disciplines. Despite such increasing and diverse interest in climate change and cultural heritage and resources, the geographic scope of research is limited (predominantly European focused). Additionally, we identified the need for future studies that not only focuses on efficient, sustainable adaptation planning options but also documents if, and how, the implementation of cultural heritage and resources adaptation or preservation is taking place. This systematic literature review can help direct scholarly research in climate change and cultural heritage and resource area. Ultimately, we hope these new directions can influence policy-making for preservation and adaptation of cultural heritage and cultural resources globally. 

Coastal Hazard Wheel

Tool Overview: 

The Coastal Hazard Wheel is a universal coastal adaptation system to address all coastal challenges simultaneously. It can be used as a complete coastal language and aims to boost adaptation action and bridge the gap between scientists, policy-makers and the general public. It is based on a new coastal classification system and functions as a key for classifying a particular coastal location, determining its hazard profile, identifying relevant management options and communicating coastal information.

Email Address: 
Position Title: 
Senior Researcher
Email Address: 
Position Title: 
Senior Consultant

Quantifying the Success of Buyout Programs: A Staten Island Case Study

Location

Staten Island 10306 Staten Island , NY
United States
40° 34' 22.5624" N, 74° 7' 47.5248" W
New York US
Organization: 
Duke University
Summary: 

An increasingly common post-disaster mitigation approach, home buyout programs are generally intended to reduce vulnerability to future disasters. However, to date, there has been virtually no quantitative evaluation of whether or not coastal buyout programs are successful in reducing vulnerability. Through a change in vulnerability analysis, this study quantifies the success of the Staten Island buyout program in reducing the nationwide vulnerability of people and property to coastal flood hazards.

Chicago Wilderness region urban forest vulnerability assessment and synthesis

The urban forest of the Chicago Wilderness region, a 7-million-acre area covering portions of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of urban trees and natural and developed landscapes within the Chicago Wilderness region to a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and illustrated a range of projected future climates. We used this information to inform models of habitat suitability for trees native to the area. Projected shifts in plant hardiness and heat zones were used to understand how nonnative species and cultivars may tolerate future conditions. We also assessed the adaptability of planted and naturally occurring trees to stressors that may not be accounted for in habitat suitability models such as drought, flooding, wind damage, and air pollution. The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major stressors currently threatening the urban forest of the Chicago Wilderness region. Major current threats to the region’s urban forest include invasive species, pests and disease, land-use change, development, and fragmentation. Observed trends in climate over the historical record from 1901 through 2011 show a temperature increase of 1 °F in the Chicago Wilderness region. Precipitation increased as well, especially during the summer. Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 2.3 to 8.2 °F by the end of the century, with temperature increases across all seasons. Projections for precipitation show an increase in winter and spring precipitation, and summer and fall precipitation projections vary by model. Species distribution modeling for native species suggests that suitable habitat may decrease for 11 primarily northern species and increase or become newly suitable for 40 species. An analysis of tree species vulnerability that combines model projections, shifts in hardiness and heat zones, and adaptive capacity showed that 15 percent of the trees currently present in the region have either moderate-high or high vulnerability to climate change, and many of those trees with low vulnerability are invasive species. We developed a process for self-assessment of urban forest vulnerability that was tested by urban forestry professionals from four municipalities, three park districts, and three forest preserve districts in the region. The professionals generally rated the impacts of climate change on the places they managed as moderately negative, mostly driven by the potential effects of extreme storms and heavy precipitation on trees in the area. The capacity of forests to adapt to climate change ranged widely based on economic, social, and organizational factors, as well as on the diversity of species and genotypes of trees in the area. These projected changes in climate and their associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for urban forest management, including the planting and maintenance of street and park trees, management of natural areas, and long-term planning. will have important implications for urban forest management, including the planting and maintenance of street and park trees, management of natural areas, and long-term planning.