Assessing the Vulnerability of Species and Ecosystems to Projected Future Climate Change in the Pacific

Sarah L. Shafer, Patrick J. Bartlein, Elizabeth M. Gray, Richard T. Pelltier
Posted on: 7/18/2022 - Updated on: 8/10/2023

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To develop effective adaptive management plans, conservation and natural resource managers need to know how climate change will affect the species and ecosystems they manage. This project provides managers with information about potential climate change effects on species and managed areas in the Pacific Northwest.

We evaluated projected changes in climate, vegetation, and species distributions through the year 2099 and assessed the potential impacts of these changes on key species and managed lands. We worked with conservation and natural resource managers to incorporate the results of this study into state, federal, and non-governmental organization (NGO) management plans.

The projected changes in climate, vegetation, and species distributions were summarized for the entire study region as well as for specific land management units, including National Parks, state and federal fish and wildlife refuges, and The Nature Conservancy (TNC) owned and managed sites.


Sarah L. Shafer, Patrick J. Bartlein, Elizabeth M. Gray, and Richard T. Pelltier. (2015). Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. PLOS ONE, 10(10).…;

Affiliated Organizations

The USGS is a science organization that provides impartial information on the health of our ecosystems and environment, the natural hazards that threaten us, the natural resources we rely on, the impacts of climate and land-use change, and the core science systems that help us provide timely, relevant, and useable information.


Adaptation Phase
Habitat/Biome Type
Target Climate Changes and Impacts

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