This research is part of the Socioeconomic Research and Monitoring Program for the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), which was initiated in 1998.

The main report concerns the Florida Keys. It includes two appendices that identify key issues related to the future of the Keys over the 21st century. Four background papers deal with the global environment (Hoegh‐Guldberg 2010a,b,c,d). They are described first to put the Florida Keys into context.
The global environment: The threat of global climate change has grown over very few years from urgent to “red alert” according to the vast majority of climate scientists. Better climate models showing positive feedback have dramatized the evidence, but more importantly what were previously considered worst cases have moved closer to the center of the probability distribution. Global factors are therefore even more crucial than when this project was first planned in 2005.

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Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

In response to a growing awareness of the intrinsic environmental and cultural value of our coastal waters, Congress created the National Marine Sanctuary Program in 1972. The National Marine Sanctuary Act authorizes the Secretary of Commerce to designate specific areas as National Marine Sanctuaries to promote comprehensive management of their special ecological, historical, recreational, and esthetic resources.


Community / Local
Sector Addressed
Conservation / Restoration
Development (socioeconomic)
Disaster Risk Management
Land Use Planning
Tourism / Recreation
Water Resources
Type of Adaptation Action/Strategy
Natural Resource Management / Conservation
Reduce local climate or related change
Capacity Building
Increase / Improve public awareness, education, and outreach efforts
Conduct scenario planning exercise
Infrastructure, Planning, and Development
Community Planning (developing climate-smart communities)
Governance and Policy
Develop / implement adaptation plans
Maintain adequate financial resources for adaptation
Target Climate Changes and Impacts
Culture / communities
Fishery harvest
Ocean acidification
Sea level rise
Species of concern
Storms or extreme weather events
Water supply
Southeast & Caribbean