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Comprehensive Southwest Florida/Charlotte Harbor Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

Lisa Beever, James W. Beever III, Whitney Gray, Daniel Trescott, Dan Cobb, and Jason Utley
Created: 9/14/2009 - Updated: 9/24/2019


This study examines the current climate and ongoing climate change in southwest Florida along with five future scenarios of climate change into the year 2200. These scenarios include:1) a condition that involves a future in which mitigative actions are undertaken to reduce the human influence on climate change2) a 90% probable future predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change3) a 50% probable future predicted by IPCC,4) a 5% probable future predicted by the IPCC, and5) a ―very worst‖ future in which no actions are taken to address climate change.

This fifth scenario also corresponds with some of the other worst case scenarios postulated by scientists who think the IPCC estimations are underestimated.

This report also assesses significant potential climate changes in air and water and the effects of those changes on climate stability, sea level, hydrology, geomorphology, natural habitats and species, land use changes, economy, human health, human infrastructure, and variable risk projections, in southwest Florida. Among the consequences of climate change that threaten estuarine ecosystem services, the most serious involve interactions between climate-dependent processes and human responses to those climate changes.

Published On

Tuesday, September 15, 2009


Community / Local
Sector Addressed: 
Conservation / Restoration
Disaster Risk Management
Land Use Planning
Target Climate Changes and Impacts: 
Sea level rise
Type of Adaptation Action/Strategy: 
Natural Resource Management / Conservation
Capacity Building
Conduct / Gather additional research, data, and products
Conduct vulnerability assessments and studies
Conduct scenario planning exercise
Monitor climate change impacts and adaptation efficacy
Habitat/Biome Type: 

Related Resources

Incorporating Climate Change Impacts into Activities in Charlotte Harbor, Florida

Photo attributed to Rogue Black / E L Weems. Incorporated here under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license. No endorsement by licensor implied.

Case Study

The Charlotte Harbor National Estuary Program (CHNEP) conducted a regionwide vulnerability assessment and developed an adaptation plan for the City of Punta Gorda, Florida over a two year period, and is now working to develop a set of climate change indicators and a monitoring plan.

Sector Addressed: 
Development (socioeconomic)
Disaster Risk Management
Tourism / Recreation
Transportation / Infrastructure