Considering Multiple Futures: Scenario Planning to Address Uncertainty in Natural Resource Conservation

Molly Cross, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), Erika L. Rowland, and Holly Hartmann
Created: 7/22/2014 - Updated: 8/09/2018

Abstract

The publication, Considering Multiple Futures: Scenario Planning to Address Uncertainty in Natural Resource Conservation, presents scenario planning as an approach to help natural resource managers accommodate the uncertainty involved with combined threats to habitats and wildlife, including climate change, habitat fragmentation, land use, and invasive species. The publication presents the core elements of scenario planning, examines how scenario planning differs from other decision-support frameworks, identifies situations in which scenario planning could be used, explores the diversity of implementation options and approaches available to managers, and provides suggestions and additional resources for managers looking to embark on their own scenario planning effort. The report also includes 12 case studies representing a range of climate change-related scenario planning approaches for natural resource and conservation issues across the United States.

Published On

Thursday, May 1, 2014

Keywords

Target Climate Changes and Impacts: 
Air temperature
Biodiversity
Habitat extent
Species of concern
Type of Adaptation Action/Strategy: 
Natural Resource Management / Conservation
Conduct scenario planning exercise