Considering Multiple Futures: Scenario Planning to Address Uncertainty in Natural Resource Conservation

Erika L. Rowland, Holly Hartmann
Created: 7/22/2014 -

Abstract

The publication, Considering Multiple Futures: Scenario Planning to Address Uncertainty in Natural Resource Conservation, presents scenario planning as an approach to help natural resource managers accommodate the uncertainty involved with combined threats to habitats and wildlife, including climate change, habitat fragmentation, land use, and invasive species. The publication presents the core elements of scenario planning, examines how scenario planning differs from other decision-support frameworks, identifies situations in which scenario planning could be used, explores the diversity of implementation options and approaches available to managers, and provides suggestions and additional resources for managers looking to embark on their own scenario planning effort. The report also includes 12 case studies representing a range of climate change-related scenario planning approaches for natural resource and conservation issues across the United States.

Published On

Organization(s)

The U.S. Department of the Interior protects and manages the Nation's natural resources and cultural heritage; provides scientific and other information about those resources; and honors its trust responsibilities or special commitments to American Indians, Alaska Natives, and affiliated Island Communities. The Interior heads eight technical bureaus: Bureau of Indian Affairs, Bureau of Land Management, Bureau of Reclamation, Minerals Management Service, National Park Service, Office of Surface Mining, Reclamation and Enforcement, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and U.S.

The Wildlife Conservation Society, founded in 1895, has the clear mission to save wildlife and wild places across the globe. Our story began in the early 1900’s when we successfully helped the American bison recover on the Western Plains.

Keywords

Type of Adaptation Action/Strategy
Natural Resource Management / Conservation
Conduct scenario planning exercise
Target Climate Changes and Impacts
Air temperature
Biodiversity
Habitat extent
Species of concern
Region
United States