Abstract

Planning with statistics of future climate based on projections, rather than just replicating recent history, requires wsefully summarizing incomplete information from new, fastmoving, and potentially irreducibly uncertain science as well as justifying analytic choices to diverse constituencies, many of whom may object to implications of some particular choices. The solution requires rethinking how we use uncertain climate information in our planning. Recent reports suggest there are limits to the usefulness of classic risk analysis for climate-related problems, seeking robust strategies may prove a preferable approach, and any analytic approach should be embedded in appropriate process of stakeholder engagement.