Abstract

The northern Gulf of Mexico coast spans a dramatic water availability gradient (precipitation range: 700 to 1800 mm/year) and represents an excellent natural laboratory for developing climate-influenced ecological models for natural resource managers and culture keepers.

In this project, we used this zone of remarkable transition to develop macroclimate-based models for quantifying the regional responses of coastal wetland ecosystems to climate variation. In addition to providing important fish and wildlife habitat and supporting coastal food webs, these coastal wetlands provide many ecosystem goods and services including clean water, stable coastlines, food, recreational opportunities, and stored carbon.

Our objective was to examine and forecast the effects of macroclimatic drivers on wetland ecosystem structure and function in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Our first major step in meeting this overall objective was to develop a quantitative understanding of the connections between climate and ecosystem structure. We then incorporated the resulting information into quantitative vulnerability assessments that examine sensitivity (via observed data), exposure (via alternative future climate scenarios), and adaptive capacity (via life history literature). In the process, we identified regional climate-ecological thresholds for coastal wetland ecosystems. Our study focused on coastal wetland variations across relatively dramatic precipitation and temperature gradients in the northern Gulf of Mexico and included study areas in TX, LA, MS, AL, and FL.

The project provided valuable experience and opportunities for five early-career researchers (one post-doctoral fellow, two current or recent undergraduate students, and two early-career research scientists).