Abstract

Studies have already detected intensification of precipitation events consistent with climate change projections. Communities may have a window of opportunity to prepare, but information sufficiently quantified and localized to support adaptation programs is sparse: published literature is typically characterized by general resilience building or regional vulnerability studies. The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC observed that adaptation can no longer be postponed pending the effective elimination of uncertainty. Methods must be developed that manage residual uncertainty, providing community leaders with decision-support information sufficient for implementing infrastructure adaptation programs. This study developed a local-scale and actionable protocol for maintaining historical risk levels for communities facing significant impacts from climate change and population growth.