Abstract

The overall goal of the Midwestern regional-scale assessment is to identify river reaches in the Glacial Lakes Partnership regions (mainly focusing on Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) that are most vulnerable to potential impacts of projected climate and land use changes. Because fish assemblages are strongly influenced by river water temperature and flow regimes which are in turn affected by climate and land-use conditions, we will attempt to model fish habitats response to climate and land use changes through changes in temperature and flow. The intent of this project is to: - Develop three models that predict daily summer temperature for all river reaches in each state (~165,000 segments). - Develop a single model to predict non-winter flow regimes for all river reaches in the region. - Develop relational models among fish, water temperature regime, and flow regime. - Develop fish habitat scores that allow us to compare the fish assemblages, water temperature, and flow regimes under current and future climate and land-use conditions. Final Products:- Predicted temperature and flow regime maps. - Predicted distribution maps for major sport fish species. - Potential vulnerability ranking and potential major sport fish species shifts.