Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Biodiversity Conservation in a Midcontinental Region of North America

Susan Galatowitsch, Lee Frelich, Laura Phillips-Mao
Created: 5/06/2009 -

Abstract

Scenario planning should be an effective tool for developing responses to climate change but will depend on ecological assessments of broad enough scope to support decision-making. Using climate projections from an ensemble of 16 models, we conducted an assessment of a midcontinental area of North America (Minnesota) based on a resistance, resilience, and facilitation framework. We assessed likely impacts and proposed options for eight landscape regions within the planning area. Climate change projections suggest that by 2069, average annual temperatures will increase 3 degrees C with a slight increase in precipitation (6%). Analogous climate locales currently prevail 400–500 km SSW. Although the effects of climate change may be resisted through intensive management of invasive species, herbivores, and disturbance regimes, conservation practices need to shift to facilitation and resilience. Key resilience actions include providing buffers for small reserves, expanding reserves that lack adequate environmental heterogeneity, prioritizing protection of likely climate refuges, and managing forests for multi-species and multi-aged stands. Modifying restoration practices to rely on seeding (not plants), enlarge seed zones, and include common species from nearby southerly or drier locales is a logical low-risk facilitation strategy. Monitoring ‘‘trailing edge” populations of rare species should be a high conservation priority to support decisionmaking related to assisted colonization. Ecological assessments that consider resistance, resilience, and facilitation actions during scenario planning is a productive first step towards effective climate change planning for biodiversity with broad applicability to many regions of the world.

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Keywords

Scale
State / Provincial
Sector Addressed
Research
Type of Adaptation Action/Strategy
Natural Resource Management / Conservation
Incorporate climate-smart guidelines into restoration
Incorporate future conditions into natural resources planning and policies
Enhance migration corridors and other connectivity measures
Create new refugia / Increase size and amount of protected areas
Capacity Building
Conduct scenario planning exercise
Monitor climate change impacts and adaptation efficacy