Collecting information on and understanding climate change are critical steps in taking adaptation action. This includes understanding what changes are occurring and the implications of those changes; these activities include:

• Impacts assessments
• Vulnerability assessments
• Targeted research studies

Conduct & Gather Additional Research & Data (Impacts Assessments)

This strategy includes research studies, modeling, and assessments; these activities may happen at the scientific level but traditional ecological knowledge and citizen science efforts are also critical pieces that support knowledge enhancement. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has supported a series of assessments¹⁰⁴; for example, a chapter in the 2009 report Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States is a dedicated impacts assessment of the Midwest region.¹⁰⁵ In addition, the USGCRP is coordinating the 2013 National Climate Assessment with multiple partners. Released in 2013, the report includes chapters on sectors, habitats, and geographies relevant to the Great Lakes region.¹⁰⁶

The WICCI released a full assessment of both climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in 2011.¹⁰⁷ This is a unique report as it was not produced through a government mandate but rather through a bottom-up process led by the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. Individual assessments were provided by the 15 working groups set up by the WICCI to inform this report; these assessments are topic-based (Climate, Adaptation), place-based (Green Bay, Milwaukee), and sector-based (Agriculture, Central Sands Hydrology, Coastal Communities, Coldwater Fish and Fisheries, Forestry, Human Health, Plants and Natural Communities, Soil Conservation, Stormwater, Water Resources, Wildlife). These individual reports are available on the WICCI website.¹⁰⁸

Species-level impacts assessments are occurring at a few different scales. In Minnesota, the National Park Service, the University of Minnesota’s Natural Resources Research Institute, and the U.S. Geological Survey are collaborating on a project to track moose movement within Voyageurs National Park using GPS collars that provide location and temperature data at different time intervals. The data collected will allow researchers to test hypotheses about moose movement in relation to changes in temperature and weather and help identify areas that may act as potential climate refugia.¹⁰⁹ Also, scientists at Michigan State University are investigating the impact of changing climate conditions on population growth and survival of Great Lakes lake whitefish. They plan to create a model linking climate factors with lake whitefish population dynamics in order to provide a decision support tool and associated guidance for lake whitefish harvest management. The tool will help decision makers coordinate lake whitefish conservation efforts and harvest strategies under varying climate regimes.¹¹⁰

Conduct Vulnerability Assessments & Studies

Vulnerability assessments and studies help practitioners evaluate and understand the implications of climatic changes by examining exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These assessments can identify impacts, what is at risk, and the range of options available to increase resilience and decrease vulnerability. Vulnerability assessments are gaining traction at multiple scales and for multiple purposes; for example, Executive Order 13514 mandates the evaluation and assessment of vulnerabilities that climate change may pose to federal agency operations and missions.¹¹¹ Most examples from the Great Lakes region are assessments of habitats and species.

Habitat Assessments

The National Park Service’s Geologic Resources Division, in partnership with the U.S. Geological Survey, has conducted assessments of 23 park sites. As part of this project, assessments of Apostle Islands National Lakeshore (Wisconsin), Indiana Dunes National Lakeshore (Indiana), and Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore (Michigan) have been conducted with respect to lake level changes. The project involves creating maps of vulnerable areas using the Coastal Change Potential Index, which allows scientists to quantify potential physical changes to the shoreline from future lake level changes.¹¹²

A regional climate change vulnerability assessment was conducted on wetlands in Lake Ontario, Lake Erie, and Lake St. Clair by Environment Canada, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, and the University of Waterloo. Using a literature review, surveys, aerial photography analysis, modeling, and stakeholder outreach and engagement, the project team examined wetland communities’ responses to lake level changes (historical and anticipated) and adaptation responses (e.g., land use policy changes, lake regulation, dyking). The three major components of the assessment were wetland modeling, adaptation strategies assessment, and stakeholder engagement.¹¹³

Species Assessments

Species-level vulnerability assessments have been conducted in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. In Illinois, The Nature Conservancy partnered with the Illinois Department of Natural Resources on a vulnerability assessment of 163 species from the state’s list of “Species in Greatest Need of Conservation” in its State Wildlife Action Plan (SWAP).¹¹⁴ Using NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index tool, project staff ranked and assessed the relative vulnerability (from Extremely Vulnerable to Population Increase Likely) of plant and animal species to climate change. The project team created a climate change update¹¹⁵ for the SWAP based on the results from the vulnerability assessment.

For each of the “campaigns” listed in the SWAP (e.g., Streams, Farmland and Prairies, Forests, Wetlands, Invasive Species, Land and Water Stewardship, and Green Cities), conservation actions from the 2005 plan were analyzed and recommendations provided for consideration of climate change effects. For example, the 2005 plan calls for the protection and restoration of near-stream and in-stream habitats and processes; the update recommends planting and enhancing riparian vegetation that can provide shade and microclimate refugia to limit thermal stress on species. The Michigan Department of Natural Resources is examining the vulnerability of Kirtland’s warbler to climate change and developing ways to address this vulnerability. Kirtland’s warblers are currently endangered and rely on Jack pine forests, which will likely be replaced by aspen and oaks along the southern margin of their range due to warming temperatures.¹¹⁶

As part of the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework (which includes portions of Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin), project staff assessed the vulnerabilities of individual tree species and forest or natural community types. Gridded historical and modeled climate change information, as well as two different modeling approaches (climate envelope and process), were used to model impacts on tree species. A group of experts were also convened to evaluate individual species’ sensitivity and ground-truth model results. The vulnerability assessment results were used to create maps of the ecoregion showing where species might decline in the future.¹¹⁷

Initiate Targeted Research Programs & Studies

Investing in and enhancing targeted research programs and studies is important in order to understand the effects of climate change on natural resources. These initiatives can aid adaptation efforts by establishing a baseline from which to measure change or by addressing the specific uncertainties and variables that may be hindering progress on adaptation action.

Canada’s Regional Adaptation Collaboratives (RAC) Climate Change Program was created to coordinate research, planning, and action related to climate change adaptation.¹¹⁸ Two RACs are located in the Great Lakes region – Quebec and Ontario. The Quebec RAC has focused its climate change adaptation efforts on three themes: built environment, water management, and socioeconomic activities, such as forestry, agriculture, tourism, and recreation. The effort has been led by Ouranos with over 20 partners in the federal, private, and non-governmental worlds.¹¹⁹

The Ontario RAC has focused its efforts on three themes: extreme weather risk management, water management, and community development planning. The effort has been led by the Ontario Ministry of the Environment with partners in the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Ontario Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing, Clean Air Partnership, Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources, Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, Association of Canadian Educational Resources, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, York University, and Toronto Public Health.¹²⁰ The entire RAC Program is ending in December 2012; Natural Resources Canada is planning to build on the efforts of the RACs through a new initiative called the Adaptation Platform (2011-16).

Other examples are related to species studies. Scientists at Michigan State University are examining bird abundance and distribution and their relationship with changes in land cover and climate in the Great Lakes region. This information will be used to develop models that can provide spatially explicit forecasts of future avian responses, which will be incorporated into bird conservation decision making.¹²¹ In addition, scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey Great Lakes Science Center are updating a regional climate model to predict changes in water level, water temperatures, and ice cover for the Great Lakes basin in the next 50-100 years. These models will be used along with longterm data sets and time series models to explore how climate influences variability in fish populations in lakes Michigan and Huron. This effort will be used to forecast future fish production and will be presented to resource managers throughout the region to aid in species management.¹²²